Scotland stands at the edge of rugby history as they face New Zealand’s All Blacks at Murrayfield, once again seeking to break a 120-year winless streak that has become one of sport’s great hoodoos. The fixture, part of the Autumn Nations Series, is more than just a game; it’s a test of belief, psychological barriers, and the unyielding optimism of a nation. Across 32 encounters since 1905, Scotland have never managed to defeat the All Blacks, with two draws and 30 defeats marking their painful record.
A Fixture Steeped in History
The first clash between the two sides occurred in 1905, and since then, the All Blacks have been the dominant force. Murrayfield, however, has often been the stage for close calls and heartbreaks, with Scottish sides coming agonizingly close but ultimately faltering. Notably, the 25-25 draw in 1983 remains a high-water mark in Scotland’s pursuit, with winger Jim Pollock’s last-minute try nearly snatching a win before a missed conversion consigned the result to a stalemate.
Recent Encounters: Near Misses and Lessons Learned
In recent years, the gap has narrowed. The November 2022 meeting saw Scotland lead 23-14 into the final quarter, their supporters daring to dream of an upset. However, New Zealand responded as champions do, scoring two late tries and capitalising when Scotland had a player in the sin bin, to snatch victory 31-23 at the death. These experiences have bred a new mindset within the Scottish camp, emphasising mental toughness and the need to “see it home” when in a winning position, as forwards coach John Dalziel notes.
The All Blacks: Giants with a Vulnerability?
New Zealand, perennial rugby titans, have rarely arrived in Edinburgh under a cloud, yet this match saw the squad forced to make changes due to injuries. Both Scott Barrett and Jordie Barrett were ruled out, giving Ardie Savea the captaincy and seeing new faces promoted into the starting lineup. The All Blacks’ recent form includes a solid win against Ireland, but even pundits admit the side is excellent, but perhaps not quite the “vintage” All Blacks of yesteryear, an area Scotland will be keen to exploit.
Scotland’s Build-Up: Belief and Preparation
Gregor Townsend’s men enter the contest in good form, coming off a resounding 85-0 thrashing of the United States to open their November campaign. The squad is buoyed by the return of influential playmakers Finn Russell and Ben White, as well as versatile backs Jamie Dobie and Tom Jordan. For Scotland, preparation has not just been physical but also mental; breaking long-standing losing runs in other venues (Twickenham, Paris) has bred a sense that anything is possible.
Tactical Analysis: Where Scotland Can Challenge
Historically, Scotland’s undoing has come in the final 20 minutes, as the All Blacks show their depth and clinical ability. For Scotland to prevail, it must:
- Win collisions and control territory, especially in the latter stages.
- Maintain discipline to avoid the yellow cards that led to previous match losses.
- Utilise set-piece and backline creativity, leveraging Russell’s boot and Kinghorn’s running ability as key assets.
- Exploit any New Zealand vulnerabilities in squad depth due to injuries.
The coaching staff emphasises building belief and focus. There’s no denying the magnitude of a win would be seismic, not just for the squad but for Scottish rugby as a whole.
All Blacks’ Perspective: Record on the Line
The All Blacks are clear favourites, with most analysts giving them over a 70% chance of victory. However, they are acutely aware of the weight of history; no player wants to be part of the group that finally loses to Scotland after 120 years. Their own coaches preach respect and readiness, understanding that an inspired Scottish side, at home and buoyed by recent resilience, can pose a threat even to the most storied rugby dynasty.
Statistical Context: The Streak and Its Myths
- 32 matches since 1905: 30 wins for New Zealand, two draws, zero Scottish victories.
- Closest Scotland came: 25-25 draw (1983), 23-31 defeat (2022, after leading).
- Longest drought: No other Tier 1 nation has gone so long without a win against a rival.
- Points record: Andrew Mehrtens (NZ) scored 108 against Scotland, Lomu & Umaga have 7 tries each.
Psychological Barriers: Hoodoo or Reality?
Many commentators frame the clash as a battle against psychology as much as tactics. Tom English of BBC Sport calls it “one of sport’s greatest hoodoos,” questioning if Scotland’s best 80 minutes is enough to overcome decades of near-misses, heartbreak, and ingrained mythology. Coaches stress the importance of ignoring the stigma and focusing on their own game, highlighting how breaking the losers’ psychology was pivotal in other famous Scottish wins.
Fan and Expert Expectations: Can the Hoodoo Finally End?
As the teams took to the field, Scottish fans dared to dream. Online sentiment and pundit predictions, even if skewed towards the All Blacks as favourites, note that this is the most vulnerable and competitive Scottish side in years, giving hope that the unthinkable might finally be possible.